Can Jasmine Crockett win Senate bid by expanding Texas electorate?

The winner of the Democratic primary between Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico will encounter an electorate dominated by Republicans.

By Gromer Jeffers Jr.
Dallas Morning News
https://www.dallasnews.com/

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett entered the Senate race Monday with an ambitious promise to snap Texas Democrats’ nearly 32-year statewide losing streak.

To accomplish what some call a near-miraculous feat of turning John Cornyn’s Senate seat blue, Crockett says she will mount an inclusive campaign that adds a cross-section of voters into the Democratic tent.

“People are looking for real people,” Crockett told reporters Monday. “They are tired of these politicians that are being told what to say, when to say it and how to say it. They want somebody that they believe is real, and who is going to fight for them, even if they don’t believe in their policies 100%.”

Crockett’s path to the Senate hinges on coaxing nonvoters to the polls in a heavily Republican state.

She hopes to ride strong name recognition to win the fast-approaching March 3 primary, then lead the resistance against President Donald Trump. The “JC way,” as she calls it, would spark a blue wave across Texas, she said.

Others have tried to break through since 1994, when seven Democrats won statewide races. In each instance since then, Republicans were able to muster enough votes to prevail. Only a few of the contests since then have been close.

Crockett said this year will be different, and she’s using Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate campaign against Republican Ted Cruz as a guide. O’Rourke lost to Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. O’Rourke, Crockett said in her announcement speech, got about 90% of the Black vote and 65% of the Latino vote.

“This campaign is about winning with a strong, multiracial, multigenerational coalition of people that is reflective of this great state that is 61% people of color,” Crockett said. “There is room in this campaign for everyone who feels like our state is getting in the wrong direction, and that’s the majority of Texas.”

Political analysts agree Crockett cannot win a Senate race unless she brings more voters to the process. Depending on the contest, the electorate has far more Republicans participating than Democrats. Some analysts say the structural advantage for Republicans in statewide elections is at least 750,000. In many elections it can grow to more than 1 million voters.

“Crockett’s target is low-propensity voters, and she has the persona and is in a good position to be able to bring them out,” said Texas Southern University political scientist and pollster Michael Adams. “She will be able to gin up turnout… She’s been the foil for Trump, and she’s been a voice that appeals to some younger voters, or what I would describe as low-propensity voters.”

Crockett’s plan includes a robust turnout from dependable Democrat voters. She told CNN she doesn’t have to appeal to Trump supporters for victory, saying her goal is to “engage people that have historically not been talked to, because there are so many people who get ignored.”

Republicans, at least publicly, have been giddy over the prospect of Crockett being on the general election ballot. The winner of the primary between Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico of Austin will face the GOP nominee from a field that includes Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt of Houston and Cornyn.

For his part, Talarico has touted his 2018 victory in a Texas House district carried by Trump. His campaign strategy includes outreach to disgruntled Trump supporters.

“James is fighting for the vote of every Texan,” said Talarico campaign spokesperson JT Ennis.

“Ending 30 years of one party rule in Texas requires a campaign that energizes the Democratic base, turns out new voters, and welcomes Trump voters who are now feeling conned,” Ennis said in a text message. “James’ track record flipping a Trump district, passing dozens of bills through the Republican-dominated state legislature to lower costs and make life better for Texans, breaking grassroots fundraising records, and building an army of 10,000 volunteers across the state make him the best candidate to do it.”

University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus said it’s difficult to get the millions of nonvoters to the polls because of the cost and how to precisely craft a message that gets them off the couch and into voting booths.

“It is hard, if not impossible, to get people who otherwise don’t typically vote to turn out to vote,” Rottinghaus said. “It’s still possible. The state is ever-shifting and the demographic change is fluid like the ocean, but there are some fundamentals that make it really hard for Democrats to get over that hump.”

Rottinghaus said Crockett and Talarico would face a backlash from Republican voters, even with Trump’s sagging poll numbers and history showing the party that controls the White House struggles in midterm elections.

“While a stalwart Democrat with progressive views can rally Democrats, there’s also counter-messaging that rallies Republicans,” he said. “For every Democrat you rally, there’s one and a half Republicans you rally as well. That’s the number advantage that Republicans have.”

Democrats and voting rights activists agree Crockett has the potential to create a larger voter turnout than normal.

“There’s an audience and a base and a hunger for a Jasmine-style campaign,” said Dallas County Democratic Party Chairman Kardal Coleman. “There are people in our electorate, whether they are base voters or folks who don’t always show up, who would come out because of Crockett being on the ballot.”

“Crockett is plain-spoken, and it’s easy to connect with her style of communication,” Coleman said. “There is a master communicator on the other side of that race in James Talarico. There’s a chance we’re going to have record voter turnout, specifically amongst young voters.”

The political atmosphere and the resistance to Trump’s domestic and foreign policy gives Crockett an opportunity to lead a historic voter mobilization effort, others say.

“We’re in a moment where people want bold, fresh ideas, and people are no longer interested in just going along to get along, and doing the same thing and expecting different results,” said Sara Mokuria, an activist who lives in Dallas. “Crockett has the potential to be bold and to build new ideas for Texas. I would love to see her use that boldness to build an affirmative agenda that fights for people here in Texas.”

Mokuria said New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani was evidence voters want something different in their elected leaders. The self-proclaimed Democratic socialist won with a coalition that included young and new voters.

Mokuria said getting disaffected voters to participate in elections involves addressing foreign and domestic issues they care about.

“We need bold leadership that isn’t afraid to resist genocide and racism and act as a transformative force in the Senate,” she said. “They’re looking for people who are courageous and unafraid to fight for better living conditions.”

Brianna Brown, who in January will become Texas Organizing Project’s sole executive director, said mobilizing more voters is the only way to change Texas politics.

“Expanding the electorate isn’t just how we shift the political trajectory of Texas — it’s how we build a democracy that works for everyone,” Brown said. “The more Texans who vote, the healthier our democracy is.”

Brown said “the radical right has worked to shrink who gets to participate.”

“If we want a different statewide outcome in 2026, expanding participation is the only path — and it’s the work the Texas Organizing Project has invested in for 15 years,” Brown said.

One progressive Democrat said she was excited about Crockett and Talarico and the energy their campaigns would provide.

“The US Senate Democratic Primary is now between two of the best communicators in the Texas Democratic Party,” wrote Kathleen Thompson, executive director of Progress Texas, in an email. “Reps. Crockett and Talarico share our focus of spreading progressive values and affordability policies (a government that works for the people) as far as possible—which will only help turn out young voters, working people, and the millions who sat out in 2024.”

“A general election Democratic win requires many more Texans turning out in our vote-suppressed state, so Democrats need all the attention they can get,” Thompson added. “Jasmine and James know how to get it.”

While announcing her candidacy, Crockett said Democrats have had success in other states that lean or once leaned Republican. She pointed to Georgia in 2021 sending Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff to the U.S. Senate. Last month Mississippi Democrats won in two Republican-held districts to break a GOP supermajority in the state Senate.

“If Mississippi can flip seats, then why can’t Texas,” Crockett told her supporters. “If Georgia can elect two Democrats to the United States Senate, then Texas can too.”

By Gromer Jeffers Jr.

The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.

This story, originally published in The Dallas Morning News, is reprinted as part of a collaborative partnership between The Dallas Morning News and Texas Metro News. The partnership seeks to boost coverage of Dallas’ communities of color, particularly in southern Dallas.