Numerous Texas residents will be uprooted for new districts as Republicans try to hold the U.S. House for President Donald Trump.

By Gromer Jeffers Jr.
political writer

Redistricting is one of the most unsettling words in politics.

It describes a volatile process that in Texas creates acrimony and exacerbates political divides. Republicans in the majority roll over the opposition. Lacking legislative maneuvers, Democrats, who are in the minority, stage quorum breaks and develop tactics to delay the inevitable passage of new boundaries that boost the GOP.

Redistricting was an ugly process when Democrats controlled Texas, as well, and included similar concerns that the voting rights of Texans — particularly in communities of color — were being violated.

What’s often lost in these political fights are average Texans, who are moved around like political pawns and their voices are largely taken for granted.

Such is the case in the latest Texas showdown, where Republicans will likely approve a plan by sheer political force, and Democrats will lay the groundwork for legal opposition and delay passage of a bill as long as possible. The tactics could involve leaving the state to prevent the quorum needed for Republicans to conduct business.

How did we get here?

President Donald Trump convinced Gov. Greg Abbott to add the redrawing of the state’s congressional boundaries to this summer’s special legislative session agenda. The special session, which contains critical issues in response to the July 4 Central Texas flooding that killed 137 people, began July 21.

Trump has said the rare mid-decade redistricting can ultimately lead to voters flipping five seats now held by Democrats into the Republican column. That could give Republicans a small cushion for next year’s midterm elections, when Trump and the GOP could face headwinds that cost them control of the House.

Historically the party that controls the White House takes losses in midterm elections, which explains why Trump wants Texas to gerrymander more districts to gain an edge. Republicans now have a 219-212 advantage in the U.S. House, with four seats vacant.

Though Texas Republicans were satisfied with the existing boundaries, they fell in line with Trump and appear committed to executing his plan.

Here are five questions to consider as the drama unfolds.

Where are the maps?

Soon after the Legislature convened last week the House and Senate held redistricting hearings. There are also public field hearings in various parts of the state, including one Monday night in Arlington.

Missing from last week’s hearings was one critical item: An actual redistricting plan.

Republicans have not produced maps or legislation outlining how the congressional boundaries would be changed. The hearings, in theory, are to get input from Texas residents. But while Texans can voice their opposition or support on whether the boundaries should be changed, they won’t have any guidance on how the ultimate plan will actually impact them.

Unless official map proposals are produced before Monday night’s hearings, North Texas residents can only guess what may be coming down the line.

The process, even if the outcome is predictable, can be more transparent.

In May, Democrats criticized Tarrant County’s recent mid-decade redistricting process, contending the approved plan racially gerrymandered voters of color into various districts in order to give Republicans an advantage. GOP leaders said the plan is legal and proper. A federal lawsuit has been filed.

That controversial process included hearings across the county, where residents could address their support, concerns or opposition to various redistricting proposals. The proposed maps were available before the hearings. And even though most of the witnesses in several of the hearings didn’t get what they wanted, they made their voices heard before the final vote was taken.

It’s unclear when the proposed maps for Texas congressional districts will surface, but it’s hoped lawmakers will give the public ample time for public input.

Can GOP flip five seats?

Gaining five congressional seats is a challenge.

If Texas Republicans thought they could get anywhere near that total, they would have drawn the maps that way in 2021. Instead, they opted to protect incumbents and seek gains where they were having new success, including areas in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

In trying to gain more seats, Republicans would have to reduce the incumbency advantage in some districts in order to make other districts held by Democrats more competitive. Imagine an incumbent in a district where the voting-age population is 60% Republican having that percentage drop to 50% or lower. That could make another district lean more Republican, but put that incumbent in slightly more jeopardy. In a wave year, which 2026 could be, that incumbent could be a closer call on election night, or even lose.

Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, said Republicans could go for the five seats Trump wants, or be careful and seek a more modest gain.

He said an aggressive strategy could work in a Republican wave year, like 2024, when Trump rolled through Texas. But next year’s midterm could resemble 2018, when Trump was in the White House for his first term and Democrats won the U.S. House, 12 seats in the Texas House and two congressional seats.

“If Republicans spread themselves so thin in order to try to flip five Democratic-held seats, they run the risk of losing more Republican seats instead,” Jones said.

Jones added that in 2021 Texas Republicans created the “ideal gerrymander,” which fortified safe GOP districts and put a select few others in play, including near the border.

“There was no thought within the Republican Party of going back to the drawing board,” Jones said. “If President Trump had not foisted this task on them, there’s no way in the world that Greg Abbott would have placed redistricting on the special session agenda.”

There’s also the fear that incumbents from both parties have of different voters in their districts. Incumbents are comfortable with voters they know and have provided constituent services to over the years.

And even if those different voters are not problematic in a general election, they could compel a challenge in the primary from an opportunistic candidate with connections.

Where will the GOP try to pick up seats?

In 2024, Trump and Republicans scored impressive victories in South Texas, particularly in counties near the border. It’s believed they will attempt to pick up at least two seats in those areas. There could also be opportunities in North Texas.

“The full monty option is to just reconfigure almost every single seat, at least somewhat, with the goal of maximizing a new Republican seat in Houston, two new Republican seats in South Texas, and one or two new Republican seats in the Metroplex or Central Texas,” said Jones, the Rice political scientist.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area could be tricky for Republicans. It’s possible to draw districts to give a Republican candidate an advantage in Democratic-held seats in Tarrant and Dallas counties. Demographic shifts made it necessary to fortify state legislative and congressional districts in 2021, so tinkering with the existing boundaries could cause heartburn for some GOP incumbents.

Texas Republican members of Congress did not testify during last week’s hearings.

The U.S. Department of Justice is playing a role in Texas redistricting and has offered clues on where the action could be centered.

Abbott added redistricting to the special session call after the Justice Department sent a letter warning Texas officials that four of the state’s majority-minority congressional districts are unconstitutionally gerrymandered. In 2021 lawmakers said the Texas maps were drawn in a color-blind approach.

Three of the four districts cited by the DOJ are held by Black or Latino representatives. The other seat is vacant and previously held by Sylvester Turner, a pioneering Black politician who died in March.

Will Democrats break quorum?

It’s possible that at some point during the special session Democrats will leave the state to prevent Republican lawmakers from having the quorum needed to pass a redistricting plan.

Democrats are pondering the timing of a walkout. Lawmakers from both parties want to vote on flood control matters, which is supposed to be the driving force behind the special session. Democrats are already chiding Republicans for starting redistricting hearings before moving on flood control issues.

When they get to it, it’s unlikely that votes on flood prevention and warning systems or any other issue will stop Democrats from leaving the state. When redistricting comes up for a vote, most believe they won’t be at the Capitol.

At a large Austin rally Friday night, sponsored by his group Powered by People, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke said Democrats should “throw punches first and harder” in the redistricting fight.

“What does that look like? It looks like all of us right now committing to one another that we’re going to have the backs of these courageous State House Dems when they break quorum for as long as it takes,” O’Rourke said, adding that supporters would give those House Democrats the “resources, encouragement and moral support, so that they can prevail.”

Will Republicans prevail?

History says yes.

Quorum breaks are hard to sustain, and at some point enough Democrats will return to Austin for Republicans to approve a plan. The filing period for Texas congressional candidates ends in December.

Democrats and voting rights activists will sue in federal court to have the plan struck down. But that won’t likely be settled in time to prevent the new boundaries from being in place for the midterm elections. Consider that the trial on the 2021 maps didn’t begin until May.

The Texas redistricting saga is quickly becoming a national fight.

Last week, Texas House Democrats traveled to discuss redistricting strategy with Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Some Democrats are encouraging governors in Democratic party strongholds to develop redistricting processes in their states to offset what happens in Texas and other Republican states.

“What if, in states where Democrats hold power right now, we seize the initiative,” O’Rourke said at the Friday rally. “Instead of waiting for Texas Republicans to act first, we redraw those congressional districts for Democratic advantage and pick up a majority in the House by any means necessary.”

Texas could be the first battle in a national redistricting struggle.

By Gromer Jeffers Jr.

The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.

This story, originally published in The Dallas Morning News, is reprinted as part of a collaborative partnership between The Dallas Morning News and Texas Metro News. The partnership seeks to boost coverage of Dallas’ communities of color, particularly in southern Dallas.